The Impact of AfCFTA on Welfare and Trade: Nigeria and South Africa in Light of Core Export Competences

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) entered into force in May 2019 after surpassing the required 22 ratifications. This article combines decision support model (DSM) and Global Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium (CGE) to make quantitative assessments of expected welfare trade effects AfCFTA on Nigerian South sectors possessing sustained export potential within member states. By specifying two scenarios membership, simulation results reveal positive gains for Nigeria (USD 146.12 million) Africa 1.46 billion), originating from GTAP identified with sustainable opportunities deal is also be net-trade-creating, a net USD 2.15 billion at global level. this are valuable informing policy light core competencies size, growth consistency import demand countries. It first time elements product-level market analytical tool harmonised CGE regional and/or bilateral arrangements. Policymakers promotion associations both recommended utilise found as point departure leveraging welfare-improving AfCFTA.